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Western N.C. is hit harder by recession
by Staff
The recession appears to have hit western North Carolina harder than the rest of the state, according to the director of the Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis at Appalachian State University.
"The (western N.C.) regional economy has struggled over the past 12 months, but conditions noticeably weakened recently, and we are beginning to see signs that the economic downturn is hitting the region harder than the rest of the state," said Todd Cherry, who also co-authors the “Western North Carolina Economic Index.”
“January 2008 has been designated the start of a national recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but it seems western North Carolina may have stepped into a regional recession a few months sooner,” said Cherry.
He said October was a particularly difficult month for the region.
Wilkes and North Carolina’s 24 other westernmost counties lost about 12,000 jobs since January, with 2,700 of the losses in October.
Western North Carolina economic activity, as measured by the index, fell 0.9 percent in October. Regional activity also fell at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2008, according to the report. Preliminary numbers indicate the national economy dropped at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in this period, Cherry said.
“The region began losing jobs during the fourth quarter of 2007, and we are actually down about 15,000 jobs from September 2007.”
Twenty-two of the 25 western North Carolina counties experienced a net job loss in October. Alleghany and Watauga counties had the largest job losses (7.39 and 4.89 percent).
Eight other counties had declines greater than 1 percent of their employment.
Avery and Mitchell counties had gains in employment, while Alexander County’s employment remained unchanged.
Regional unemployment rose 0.1 points to 7.2 percent in October, 2.5 percentage points higher than a year ago. The state jobless rate rose 0.1 points, registering 7.0 percent for the month while the national unemployment rate increased 0.4 points to 6.5 percent.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate within the region’s rural counties increased 0.2 points to 7.7 percent in October. Unemployment rose 0.1 points in both of the region’s metro areas, registering 5.8 percent in Asheville and 8.5 percent in Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir. The Asheville unemployment is 1.9 points higher than a year ago, and the Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir rate is 2.9 points higher.
All 25 counties have higher unemployment rates than 12 months ago. Cherokee and McDowell counties had the largest increases in the past 12 months (4.60 and 3.65 points) and Graham and Watauga counties had the smallest increases (0.70 and 1.06 points).
Wilkes County’s jobless rate fell from 8.1 percent in September to 7.7 percent in October, but it was still among highest in the region.
Seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance in the region, a leading indicator of unemployment, increased 0.8 percent in October. Initial claims increased 3.4 percent in Asheville, and increased 6.5 percent in Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir.
The Index and Report is a cooperative effort of AdvantageWest North Carolina and the Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis in ASU’s Walker College of Business. It’s compiled and written by Cherry, John W. Dawson of the ASU Department of Economics and Richard Crepeau of the ASU Department of Geography and Planning at Appalachian. |
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